Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries were not on track to provide high-quality education to all children by 2030. Over half of children in low- and middle-income countries experienced learning poverty, meaning they were unable to understand a simple written text by the end of primary school. This indicator helps inform [target: 4.1] as it captures both schooling and learning, combining the rate of children out of school (schooling) with the percentage who are in school but have not achieved basic reading proficiency (learning).

A country's income level is strongly related to learning poverty. Since COVID-19, learning poverty rates are estimated to have increased, and disparities between countries have widened.

While online instruction was provided in virtually all high income countries, it was available in just over half of low income countries. As a result, in low income countries, remote instruction was often through radio, where children were not supervised by an instructor.

Because of these factors, learning poverty is expected to have increased from already high pre-pandemic rates.[reference: World Bank, UNESCO, UNICEF, USAID, FCDO, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. 2022. [link: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/education/publication/state-of-global-learning-poverty "The State of Global Learning Poverty 2022 update."]] All income groups saw increases. In low and middle income countries, learning poverty is estimated to have risen from 57 percent in 2019 to between 68 and 71 percent (depending on assumptions made about the impact of school closures and remote instruction).

These impacts not only affect school-age children, but also children in early childhood, [target: 4.2]. Recent studies indicate that pre-school age children gained only 25 to 50 percent of the early language and numeracy skills that are typically acquired in early childhood.[reference: Schady, Norbert; Holla, Alaka; Sabarwal, Shwetlena; Silva, Joana; Yi Chang, Andres. 2023. [link: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/39403 Collapse and Recovery : How the COVID-19 Pandemic Eroded Human Capital and What to Do about It. ] Washington, DC: World Bank. © World Bank.]

The impacts on learning in the poorest countries were likely severe. High frequency phone survey data from the Living Standards Measurement Study in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, and Uganda indicates that, between April 2020 to June 2020, the share of school-age children involved in any learning activities dropped dramatically – by more than 50 percent on average across these six countries.[reference: Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Siwatu,Gbemisola Oseni; Zezza,Alberto; Abanokova, Kseniya. 2021. [link: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/656051621919132722/Impact-of-COVID-19-on-Learning-Evidence-from-Six-Sub-Saharan-African-Countries Impact of COVID-19 on Learning : Evidence from Six Sub-Saharan African Countries (English).] LSMS COVID-19 Cross Country Brief Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.]

In other countries, like Mexico, students from high socio-economic status (SES) backgrounds experienced large learning losses too. A comparison of household survey data from 2019 and 2021 showed the number of children scoring at low levels in reading and mathematics increased sharply in the early part of the pandemic.[reference: Hevia, Felipe J., Samana Vergara-Lope, Anabel Velásquez-Durán, and David Calderón. 2022. [link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2021.102515 "Estimation of the fundamental learning loss and learning poverty related to COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico."] International Journal of Educational Development 88 (2022): 102515.] The number of students able to solve a 4th-grade division problem dropped by at least half across all socioeconomic statuses, and the number able to comprehend a short text fell by 15 to 25 percentage points. In mathematics, the gap between low- and high-SES students grew only slightly. In reading, however, this gap grew markedly. There was a drop of 25 percentage points among low income students but 12 percentage points for high income students.

In some countries, many students dropped out before completing their education when the pandemic hit.[reference: Laura Moscoviz and David K. Evans. 2022. [link: https://www.cgdev.org/publication/learning-loss-and-student-dropouts-during-covid-19-pandemic-review-evidence-two-years “Learning Loss and Student Dropouts during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Review of the Evidence Two Years after Schools Shut Down.”] CGD Working Paper 609. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development.] Compared to pre-COVID-19 rates, girls in secondary school in rural Kenya were three times as likely to drop out of school and twice as likely to get pregnant prior to completing school, making progress on [target: 4.5] even more difficult.

In São Paulo, Brazil, students in remote schooling during 2020 learned roughly one-fourth of what they typically would in face-to-face instruction according to recent research. [reference: The World Bank, UNESCO and UNICEF (2021). The State of the Global Education Crisis: A Path to Recovery. Washington D.C., Paris, New York: The World Bank, UNESCO, and UNICEF. ]

The result of these losses is that the steady upward progress toward universal education over the past decade in São Paulo has been reversed.

Taken together the impacts of COVID-19 on education could reduce the lifetime earnings of this generation of students by $21 trillion [target: 8.1].[reference: World Bank. 2022. [link: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/education/publication/state-of-global-learning-poverty "The State of Global Learning Poverty.".]] In low and middle income countries, the total lifetime earnings losses are estimated to be $11 trillion. On a per capita basis, the current school-age generation might see a reduction in annual income of $975. To avert these losses, a strong recovery will be needed.

One policy that has helped is returning children to school. Looking at some municipalities in São Paulo that resumed classes earlier than others, researchers found that test scores increased 20 percent for students in schools where in-person instruction resumed compared to students in schools where it did not.[reference: Lichand, G., Doria, C.A., Leal-Neto, O. et al. 2022. [link: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01350-6 The impacts of remote learning in secondary education during the pandemic in Brazil]. Nat Hum Behav 6, 1079–1086. ] Student attendance also increased in schools resuming in-person instruction sooner.

In a study conducted in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, students sustained learning losses equivalent to around two years in mathematics and one year in language.[reference: Singh, A., Romero, M. and Muralidharan, K. 2022. [link: https://doi.org/10.35489/BSG-RISEWP_2022/112 COVID-19 Learning Loss and Recovery: Panel Data Evidence from India.] RISE Working Paper Series. 22/112. ] However, they were able to regain around two-thirds of the losses (that is roughly 15 months in mathematics and 7 months in language) in just five months by returning to school and participating in a remediation program introduced by the government.

While returning to in-person schooling will help recover losses, this will not be enough as countries were likely to fall short of targets even prior to COVID-19. A strong response by countries to repair the damage of COVID-19 and accelerate improvements in learning will be needed to meet the goal of ensuring all children are provided a high quality education and lifelong learning opportunities.