The global emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 [target: 3.3], along with the accompanying government measures taken to contain the disease, caused the greatest reduction in global economic activity since World War II [target: 8.1]. Following this shock and others such as inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the world is not on track to make up the lost economic output in the foreseeable future.

Latin America and the Caribbean saw a reduction in GDP of 6.6 percent, while the GDP in South Asia fell 5.2 percent. East Asia and the Pacific saw GDP decline in 2020 for the first time since at least the 1960s.

Economic growth resumed in 2021, an important step toward recovery. But due to the sharp declines in the prior year, it is starting from a lower base, and the trajectory remains below pre-pandemic forecasts in the next few years due in part to the slow recovery from COVID as well as additional headwinds from inflation and the war in Ukraine.

One way to assess whether the world is on track to recover the losses sustained in 2020 is to compare the current projected levels of economic output to the forecasts prior to COVID-19. The January 2020 World Bank Global Economic Prospects Report was released before the declaration by the World Health Organization of the pandemic (which took place in March), and thus did not reflect the impact of COVID-19. At the time, the World Bank expected global GDP to grow from roughly $85 trillion in 2019 to close to $87 trillion by 2020.[reference: Source: [link: https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects January 2020 Global Economic Prospects]. All values expressed in 2015 U.S. dollars.] The subsequent 2023 Global Economic Prospects shows a shortfall of close to $4.7 trillion from the 2020 forecast.[reference: Source: [link: https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects June 2023 Global Economic Prospects]]

These shortfalls are evident across all regions. By 2025, economic output in East Asia & Pacific is expected to be around 6 percent below its pre-pandemic trend, with Latin America & Caribbean 4 percent lower, and South Asia 8 percent below prior expectations. Economic activity in Europe & Central Asia is expected to have declined in 2022. The GDP of Ukraine is estimated to have fallen 29 percent in 2022 due to the Russian invasion, and the output of the Russian Federation dropped 2 percent. GDP growth for the region as a whole is not expected to return to the pre-COVID trend in the coming years.

Data comparing current economic projections to those prior to COVID-19 are available for each country in this chart. Out of 188 economies with data, 165 were on track to have lower GDP in 2023 than forecast prior to COVID-19.[reference: Data come from the January 2020 and June 2023 Global Economic Prospects (GEP), when available. For some countries, data from the October 2019 and April 2023 IMF World Economic Outlook is used when GEP data is not available.] These 165 countries make up around 95 percent of the world population.

India and Indonesia, two of the most populated countries in the world, have both taken a major economic hit. In 2023, India’s GDP is expected to see a shortfall of around $296 billion compared to pre-COVID expectations, 8.7 percent below earlier projections. Indonesia’s GDP will be around $107 billion lower, 8.3 percent below the 2020 projection, and both countrys’ economy is not expected to make up the lost ground at least through 2025. This suggests long-lasting damage.

China initially outperformed other economies during the pandemic, but its growth has since slowed. China’s 2025 GDP is expected to be around 6 percent lower than expected prior to COVID-19.

A few dozen countries, including Ecuador and the Democratic Republic of Congo, are expected to nearly meet or surpass GDP projections from January 2020. Ecuador caught back up to its original growth path due to a strong COVID vaccination campaign, favourable oil prices, and expanding domestic credit.[reference: [link: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099302410122214877/idu06ea0d9ac04528040ab09429014f9fd11075b "Macro Poverty Outlook for Ecuador : October 2022."](2022).] The Democratic Republic of Congo benefited from increased production and prices of copper and cobalt.[reference: [link: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099037504262221926/idu07421d2520fe95041420a88d0bc58222ba500 "Macro Poverty Outlook for Democratic Republic of Congo : April 2022."](2022).]

A handful of countries are expected to surpass pre-COVID projections by a considerable degree. Many of these countries have reaped outsized benefits from higher commodity prices or natural resource discoveries in recent years. Nicaragua benefited from higher gold and coffee prices, which are major exports.[reference: [link: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099521310132215673/idu0004e99730661b042900b96b031fba9e08d79 "Macro Poverty Outlook for Nicaragua : October 2022" ] (2022).] Guyana is benefiting from increased production and exports of oil and gas.[reference: [link: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099317110122223108/idu02dfc1c8d0b2fe04942094ac0850f88e34d0e "Macro Poverty Outlook for Guyana : October 2022"](2022).]

Factors beyond COVID-19 are also at play in several countries. Russia’s invasion devastated Ukraine’s economy. Projections prior to the COVID-19 pandemic suggested that the GDP in Ukraine was expected to be $115 billion in 2022. Projections just prior to the war suggested a shortfall of around $10 billion compared to pre-COVID projection as a result of the pandemic. The latest projection shows 2022 GDP at $72 billion, cut by more than 40% as a result of the conflict.

You may search for the data for any country of interest below:

[target: 8.5] is to achieve full and productive employment and decent work for everyone. COVID-19 had substantial impacts on jobs. The unemployment rate jumped from 7.8 percent in Latin America & the Caribbean in 2019 to 10 percent in 2020. It remained elevated into 2021. North America saw a jump in the unemployment rate from 3.9 percent in 2019 to 8.2 percent in 2020. South Asia also saw a spike in 2020 from a jobless rate of around 6.3 percent to 9.3 percent. Sub-Saharan Africa saw rates rise from around 6.3 percent to more than 7 percent in 2021 and 2022.

Unemployment rates are particularly high for women in most regions, and this issue has persisted even before the COVID-19 pandemic [target: 5.1]. In 2022, the rate of unemployment for women in Latin America and Caribbean was 2.5 percentage points higher than for men. In Middle East & North Africa, the gap was even more significant, exceeding 10 percentage points.

[target: 10.1] reminds us that not only does growth need to be restored, it must be achieved in a way that benefits everyone.

One measure of whether economic growth is broadly shared is the shared prosperity premium.[footnote: For more information on the shared prosperity premium, visit https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/brief/global-database-of-shared-prosperity] The shared prosperity premium is the gap between income growth for the bottom 40 percent of households compared to the growth of all households. Places where incomes for the bottom 40 percent grow faster than the overall average have a positive premium. In countries with a negative premium, income growth is slower for the bottom 40 percent. There is sufficient data for ninety countries to calculate the shared prosperity premium.

How can prosperity be more broadly shared? Research by World Bank economists highlights a few policies that have a proven track record.[reference: Ferreira, Francisco HG, Emanuela Galasso, and Mario Negre. [link: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29861 "Shared prosperity: concepts, data, and some policy examples."] World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8451 (2018).] One set of policies centers on enhancing the health, education, and early childhood development of individuals ([target: 2.2], [target: 4.1] and [target: 4.2]). Improvements in these areas tend to increase economic productivity ([target: 8.2]), and translate into higher economic output. Eliminating socio-economic gaps in childhood development can improve the economic prospects in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. COVID-19 has resulted in large disruptions to learning for children, compounding existing inequalities. A joint UNESCO, UNICEF, and World Bank report suggests the damage could lead to losses of about $17 trillion in lifetime earnings for children today.[footnote: The World Bank, UNESCO and UNICEF (2021). The State of the Global Education Crisis: A Path to Recovery. Washington D.C., Paris, New York: The World Bank, UNESCO, and UNICEF.] Safety net policies, like conditional cash transfers, which have shown promise for improving access to education and health services, could be salient in responding to the economic fallout of COVID-19 and other crises.

The COVID-19 pandemic was a massive shock to economic growth, with global GDP falling the most on record since World War II. While growth has resumed, GDP remains lower for most economies compared to pre-COVID trajectories. Much work is needed to secure a stronger recovery and ensure that the gains are broadly shared.